Awakening the Europhile Giant: EU Issue Voting in Western and Central‐Eastern Europe

• Published date: 01 January 2024
• Author: Luca Carrieri
• Date: 01 January 2024
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/jcms.13493

Awakening the Europhile Giant: EU Issue Voting in Western

and Central-Eastern Europe

LUCA CARRIERI

Unitelma Sapienza University of Rome, Rome

Abstract

Many works have analysed EU issue voting, showing that European integration affects electoral

preferences. This article posits that EU issues have increasingly inf‌luenced party preferences,

boosting their effects and, in particular, on Europhile parties. Several punctuation points –author-

ity transfer towards the EU, party politicisation efforts and a multiple set of crises –have occurred,

with EU issues cumulating effects on voting preferences. Europhile parties may have strategically

responded on this issue dimension, seizing on more favourable public orientations and, thus,

prompting an electoral mobilisation of their constituents. By exploring the EU issue voting

patterns in 25 Western and Central-Eastern European countries between 2014 and 2019, the article

presents two core f‌indings, corroborating its expectations. It demonstrates that EU issues have in-

creasingly affected electoral preferences, as well as enhancing their effects amongst the Europhile

party voters.

Keywords: Euroscepticism; Europhilia; EU issue voting; EU politicisation; party competition

Introduction

Over the last decade, citizens have observed a steady increase in the authority transfer

towards the European institutions, with the widening of EU prerogatives producing a con-

f‌lict in domestic politics over the scope of the integration (Hooghe and Marks 2009,

2018). Meanwhile, political parties have become more likely to emphasise and polarise

EU issues in their public agendas, turning Europe into a more politicised conf‌lict in

national party systems (De Vries and Hobolt 2020; Hutter and Kriesi 2019). Furthermore,

several crises –the Euro crisis, migration crisis and the Brexit referendum –have brought

EU-related issues to the public’s attention, probably spurring electoral reactions amongst

the voters (Hobolt and Tilley 2016).

Therefore, aspects of public opinion have also been largely investigated, especially

concerning to what extent EU-individual attitudes have been translated into voting

preferences. Findings suggest that party positions on Europe matter for voters in both

national and EP elections (De Vries et al. 2011; Jurado and Navarrete 2021; Torcal and

Rodon 2021). Although evidence can be found on the impact of EU issues on voting

preferences, some questions still, however, remain partially unanswered.

Firstly: Has the EU voter-party distance increasingly explained the electoral

preferences of parties?

This work aims at analysing the impact of the EU distance on voting preferences,

positing its growing magnitude between 2014 and 2019. This period was very eventful,

mirroring the increasing party politicisation endeavours, along with a multiple set of

crises, which have made the authority transfer towards the EU more controversial

JCMS 2024 Volume 62. Number 1. pp. 262–284DOI: 10.1111/jcms.13493

© 2023 University Association for Contemporary European Studies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

amongst citizens (Braun and Grande 2021; Hutter and Kriesi 2019). These processes may

have constituted ‘punctuation points’for EU integration, with EU issues cumulating their

effects on voting preferences. This article does not analyse any deep-seated issue evolu-

tion but accounts, instead, for potential electoral changes on the EU integration dimension

during a short-term period.

Secondly: Has the EU distance increasingly explained the electoral preferences of

Europhile party voters?

This second question seeks to identify the moderating power of the Eurosceptic/

Europhile party positions on EU issue voting. In particular, it is predicted here that a more

Europhile voting pattern came into being between 2014 and 2019. In 2014,

Euroscepticism had probably been more electorally prof‌itable, with voters rewarding rad-

ical left and radical right parties on this dimension (De Vries and Hobolt 2016). However,

in the following years, the Europhile parties may have strategically responded to the

Eurosceptics, increasingly conveying positive messages on European integration to voters

(Braun and Grande 2021; Carrieri 2020). Furthermore, the outcome of the Brexit referen-

dum may have raised popular concerns over the spill over effects of this disintegration

process, opening up a window of attention for Europhile attitudes (Delis et al. 2020). Fi-

nally, the growing levels of electoral turnout in the 2019 elections may have explained the

increasing preferences for EU issues of Europhile party voters.

The case selection includes 25 Western European (WE) and Central-Eastern European

(CEE) countries (Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia,

Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands,

Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the United

Kingdom).

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The empirical test will show that the EU distance variable has gradually

boosted its effects, with Europhile party voters increasing their electoral preferences on

the EU integration dimension, thus corroborating our expectations.

The article is organised into three sections: The f‌irst reviews the literature, advancing

the hypotheses; the second describes the data, methodology and the variable

operationalisation; and the third presents the voting models, discussing the results.

Finally, the last part draws the conclusions.

I.Theory and Hypotheses

Catherine De Vries (2010) developed the notion of EU issue voting, def‌ining it as ‘the

process whereby individual preferences over European integration directly inf‌luence the

voting choices in national elections’(De Vries 2010, p. 92). Literature on voting behav-

iour has largely dealt with the impact of EU issues on individual choices, relying on

the proximity or minimum distance theory (Downs 1957), which postulates that voters

choose parties that are closer to their own position within the political space. This

approach has proven its f‌lexibility, allowing for estimating voter-party distance along

an alternative EU integration dimension (De Sio et al. 2016; De Vries and Hobolt 2016).

In the last two decades, many works have consistently shown the impact of Europe on

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Cyprus, Luxembourg and Malta were excluded from the analysis, as these countries present a small population and a low

number of party and individual-level observations in the CHES and EES surveys, respectively.

Awakening the Europhile Giant: EU Issue Voting in Western and Central-Eastern Europe263

© 2023 University Association for Contemporary European Studies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.