European Green Industrial Policy at a Crossroads? A Pilot Set of Conjoint Experiments Among Policy Experts

• Published date: 01 December 2025
• Author: Francesco Nicoli,Marie-Sophie Lappe
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/cep4.70022
• Section: Research Article

Contemporary European Politics

RESEARCH ARTICLE

European Green Industrial Policy at a Crossroads? A Pilot

Set of Conjoint Experiments Among Policy Experts

Francesco Nicoli

1

| Marie‐Sophie Lappe

2

1

Politecnico Institute of Turin, Department of Production and Management Engineering (DIGEP), Torino, Piemonte, Italy |

2

Bruegel, Brussels, Belgium

Correspondence: Francesco Nicoli (francesco.nicoli@polito.it)

Received: 14 January 2025 | Revised: 28 July 2025 | Accepted: 12 September 2025

Keywords: climate policy | conjoint experiment| european public policy | expert survey | industrial policy

ABSTRACT

This paper explores experts' opinions towards EU industrial and climate policy amidst significant geopolitical and economic

challenges. Utilizing a twin conjoint experiment, we investigate policy preferences among experts attending the Bruegel Annual

Meetings in 2024, focusing on industrial and climate policy trade‐offs. The paper addresses critical issues such as fiscal

discipline, market competition, the formation of European champions, and supply chain strategies, particularly in the context of

competition with the United States and China. We find a mild consensus among experts for a policy mix that includes increased

investment in strategic industries, market competition, and a shift toward “friendshoring”supply chains, favoring countries

with aligned political interests. Climate policy preferences reveal stronger support for decarbonization, with experts favoring

policies that prioritize environmental goals over firm competitiveness and fiscal discipline. The paper's contribution is twofold.

First‐off, we pilot and demonstrate the feasibility of exploiting professional gatherings to deploy small‐scale conjoint experi-

ments. Hence, we contribute in advancing the study of expert preferences, demonstrating the (qualified) feasibility of experi-

mental methods by means of one of the first conjoint experiments conducted among EU policy experts, providing insights into

their preferences regarding policy trade‐offs. Second, we are able to identify clear expert preferences in both industrial and

climate policy, despite the low sample size. While the results indicate preferences for compromise solutions in industrial policy,

climate policy preferences appear more coherent and climate‐oriented.

1 | Introduction

On the onset of Ursula Von Der Leyen's second term, the

European Union (EU) is confronted with a disheartening array

of external and internal challenges. Externally, the Russian

invasion of Ukraine continues unabated, and while the EU sees

Ukraine's resistance and eventual victory as critical, the politi-

cal appetite to sustain the war effort begins to flicker.

The second Trump Presidency carries further security risks,

given that both Trump and his vice‐president have made clear

not only that they will force an unfavourable settlement on

Ukraine, but also that they will not hesitate to exploit the

reliance of the EU on the American security guarantee to

blackmail the continent into allowing trade, regulatory and

fiscal concessions. The EU's once burgeoning industries are

now struggling against competition coming from both China

and the United States, while facing domestic challenges due to

the changing regulatory environment, the uncertainty sur-

rounding their globally extended supply chains, and a gener-

alized struggle to mobilize capital towards marketable

innovation. Against this bleak backdrop, some in the EU are

pushing to pursue ‘strategic autonomy’(see Macron 2023), and

the EU has initiated an ambitious and controversial programme

of industrial renewal, which started during the first Von Der

Leyen term as a response to the American Inflation Reduction

Act (IRA) and aims at securing Europe's role in the global

supply chain of technologies deemed critical for the economy of

tomorrow, especially in light of the green transition.

This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly

cited.

© 2025 The Author(s). Contemporary European Politics published by University Association of Contemporary European Studies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

1of15Contemporary European Politics, 2025; 3:e70022

https://doi.org/10.1002/cep4.70022