INFORMATION SOCIETY : OECD SEES GRIM YEAR AHEAD FOR ICT INDUSTRY.

The forecast for 2009 is very sombre for the dynamic information and communication technology (ICT) sector, which until now has been one of the main drivers for growth in the 30 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). According to the latest estimates "the economic downturn will hit the internet economy hard in 2009" - or, in other words, no more than 4% growth in 2008 and nothing in 2009 or after.

"During the next 18 months, growth in the ICT sector is likely to be zero in the OECD," according to the OECD Information Technology Outlook 2008, published on 22 December. The situation nevertheless is still less worrying than after the internet explosion in 2001-2002, when growth in the sector collapsed. And if it is any comfort, "some sectors will resist better than others" - these include investments in computer administration and company software and services, particularly by sub-contracting, which are expected to "continue to grow".

The same goes for investments into broadband (fibre optic) infrastructures, which will remain "strong," even if certain infrastructure investments will be delayed because of the credit crisis, predicts the OECD.

This very limited optimism is even more important because the European telecoms market is going to be subjected to a reform of EU rules in 2010 intended to increase competition, decrease prices and provide better protection for the customer. Former monopolies, such as France telecom and Deutsche Telekom, are fighting against "too much...

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