Introduction

• Author: Joint Research Centre (European Commission)
• Pages: 450-451

ATLAS OF MIGRATION 2020 / COVID-19 AND MIGRATION

450

INTRODUCTION

1 WorldHealthOrganization(WHO),NovelCoronavirus(2019-nCoV)SITUATIONREPORT21January2020,WHO,2020(availableonlineat

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports)

2 EuropeanCentreforDiseasePreventionandControl(ECDC),Q&AonCOVID-19:Basicfacts,ECDC,2020(availableonlineathttps://www.ecdc.

europa.eu/en/covid-19/facts/questions-answers-basic-facts)

3 WorldHealthOrganization,CoronavirusDisease(COVID-19)Dashboard,WHO,2020(availableonlineathttps://covid19.who.int/)

4 OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD),GDPGrowth-Secondquarterof2020,OECD,2020(availableonlineat

https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/gdp-growth-second-quarter-2020-oecd.htm)

5 OECD,EconomicOutlook:StatisticsandProjections,OECD,2020(availableonlineathttps://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/data/oecd-

economic-outlook-statistics-and-projections_eo-data-en)

6 WorldBank,GlobalEconomicProspects,WorldBank,2020(availableonlineathttps://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-

prospects)

7 KalantaryanS.,andMcMahonS.,Covid-19andRemittancesinAfrica,PublicationsOceoftheEuropeanUnion,2020(availableonlineat

https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/publication/covid-19-and-remittances-africa)

8 KalantaryanS.,MazzaJ.,&ScipioniM.,MeetinglabourdemandinagricultureintimesofCOVID19pandemic,PublicationsOceofthe

EuropeanUnion,2020(availableonlineathttps://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/publication/annual-reports/meeting-labour-demand-agriculture-times-covid-

19-pandemic)

9 GamlenA.,Migrationandmobilityafterthe2020pandemic:Theendofanage?,IOM,2020(availableonlineathttps://publications.iom.int/

books/covid-19-and-transformation-migration-and-mobility-globally-migration-and-mobility-after-2020)

10 OECD,ManagingInternationalMigrationUnderCOVID-19,OECD2020(availableonlineathttp://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/

managing-international-migration-under-covid-19-6e914d57/)

Onthe eveof 2020,reports fromthe Chinesecity of

Wuhansuggestedthatanewviruswasspreadingamong

thepopulation.On31stDecember2019,theWorldHealth

Organization’s(WHO)ChinaCountryOcewas informed

ofcasesofaviral pneumoniawithanunknowncausein

thecity.1Thenewvirus,whichwouldbedenedasSevere

AcuteRespiratorySyndromeCoronavirus-2(SARS-CoV-2),

istransmittedmainlyviarespiratorydropletsandaerosols

whensneezing,coughing,orinteractingwithothersinclose

proximityandcausesthesevereillnessCOVID-19.2Itwould

dramaticallyshapethecomingyearinwaysthatfewcould

haveimagined.

AstheCOVID-19pandemichasspreadaroundtheworld,

governmentshaveurgentlyadoptedmeasuresofvarying

stringencyinaneorttocontainit.Theseincluderestrictions

onmobilityandinteractionwithotherpeople,limitsonthe

useofpublictransport andoces,‘lockdowns’and‘stay

athome’measuresprohibiting peoplefromleavingtheir

housesexceptforunder speciccircumstances.Despite

this,byMarchthe WHOdeclaredaglobal pandemicand

byOctoberthevirus hadinfectedover40millionpeople

andclaimedoveronemillionlivesworldwide.3

Thepandemichasalsoposedasevereshocktotheglobal

economy.Inthesecondquarterof2020theOrganisationfor

EconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD)recorded

thelargesteverdropingrossdomesticproduct(GDP)for

theOECDarea

4

andpredicteda4.5declineinworldGDP

overthecourse oftheyear.5TheWorld Bank’sbaseline

estimateisfora 5.2declineover2020.6 But a falling

globalGDPwill bringaboutvaryingdegrees ofhardship

fromplacetoplace. Inmanycountriesit willexacerbate

economic challenges and structural fragilities. And if

predictionsarecorrect,anunprecedenteddeclineinglobal

remittanceowswillremoveavitalsourceofincomefor

manyhouseholdstorespondtoandrebuildfromthecrisis.7

InthisspecialsectionoftheAtlasofMigrationweexplore

theimplicationsoftheCOVID-19pandemicforinternational

migrationand mobility.Studies so faragree thatthe

pandemicis likely tohave signicantimplications for

globalmigrationpatterns, butlittleisknown abouttheir

extent,timescaleorbroadereconomic,socialandpolitical

impact.TheJointResearchCentrehasshownhowmobility

restrictionshavekept seasonaltemporaryworkersfrom

workingintheEU’sagriculturesector,withlittlepotential

forthemtobereplaced bynativeworkers,forexample.8

AlanGamlenof MonashUniversityandtheUniversity of

Oxfordhaswrittenthat ‘theworldhasalready sunkinto

themigrationequivalentofaneconomicrecession.Itisall

butinevitablethatthenumbersofpeoplecrossingborders,

especiallyona permanentandlong-termbasis, willfall

furtherbeforetheybounceback’.9

Butoverallmigration guresonlytell partofthestory.

Whilstmigrationmaybecomemoredicultforsomedue

togovernmentsclosingbordersandafallinemployment

opportunitiesinplacesofeconomicdownturn,othermigrants

havebeenabletobenetfromexemptionstotravelbans,

suchasthosewhoareregularcross-borderworkers,seasonal

workersorhealthprofessionals.10Infact,thepandemicis

likelytoimpact notonlythesize ofmigrationowsbut

alsoontheir compositionandkeycharacteristics asthe

routespeopletakeanddecisionsonwhentomovechange.

Thepandemicmayalsoposeaparticularrisktomigrants

aroundtheworld. AccordingtotheOECD, migrantsmay

beat higherrisk ofinfection,in particularincountries

wherethey areconcentrated inlabour marketsectors