Introduction
Author | Joint Research Centre (European Commission) |
Pages | 450-451 |
ATLAS OF MIGRATION 2020 / COVID-19 AND MIGRATION
450
INTRODUCTION
1 WorldHealthOrganization(WHO),NovelCoronavirus(2019-nCoV)SITUATIONREPORT21January2020,WHO,2020(availableonlineat
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports)
2 EuropeanCentreforDiseasePreventionandControl(ECDC),Q&AonCOVID-19:Basicfacts,ECDC,2020(availableonlineathttps://www.ecdc.
europa.eu/en/covid-19/facts/questions-answers-basic-facts)
3 WorldHealthOrganization,CoronavirusDisease(COVID-19)Dashboard,WHO,2020(availableonlineathttps://covid19.who.int/)
4 OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD),GDPGrowth-Secondquarterof2020,OECD,2020(availableonlineat
https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/gdp-growth-second-quarter-2020-oecd.htm)
5 OECD,EconomicOutlook:StatisticsandProjections,OECD,2020(availableonlineathttps://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/data/oecd-
economic-outlook-statistics-and-projections_eo-data-en)
6 WorldBank,GlobalEconomicProspects,WorldBank,2020(availableonlineathttps://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-
prospects)
7 KalantaryanS.,andMcMahonS.,Covid-19andRemittancesinAfrica,PublicationsOceoftheEuropeanUnion,2020(availableonlineat
https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/publication/covid-19-and-remittances-africa)
8 KalantaryanS.,MazzaJ.,&ScipioniM.,MeetinglabourdemandinagricultureintimesofCOVID19pandemic,PublicationsOceofthe
EuropeanUnion,2020(availableonlineathttps://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/publication/annual-reports/meeting-labour-demand-agriculture-times-covid-
19-pandemic)
9 GamlenA.,Migrationandmobilityafterthe2020pandemic:Theendofanage?,IOM,2020(availableonlineathttps://publications.iom.int/
books/covid-19-and-transformation-migration-and-mobility-globally-migration-and-mobility-after-2020)
10 OECD,ManagingInternationalMigrationUnderCOVID-19,OECD2020(availableonlineathttp://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/
managing-international-migration-under-covid-19-6e914d57/)
Onthe eveof 2020,reports fromthe Chinesecity of
Wuhansuggestedthatanewviruswasspreadingamong
thepopulation.On31stDecember2019,theWorldHealth
Organization’s(WHO)ChinaCountryOcewas informed
ofcasesofaviral pneumoniawithanunknowncausein
thecity.1Thenewvirus,whichwouldbedenedasSevere
AcuteRespiratorySyndromeCoronavirus-2(SARS-CoV-2),
istransmittedmainlyviarespiratorydropletsandaerosols
whensneezing,coughing,orinteractingwithothersinclose
proximityandcausesthesevereillnessCOVID-19.2Itwould
dramaticallyshapethecomingyearinwaysthatfewcould
haveimagined.
AstheCOVID-19pandemichasspreadaroundtheworld,
governmentshaveurgentlyadoptedmeasuresofvarying
stringencyinaneorttocontainit.Theseincluderestrictions
onmobilityandinteractionwithotherpeople,limitsonthe
useofpublictransport andoces,‘lockdowns’and‘stay
athome’measuresprohibiting peoplefromleavingtheir
housesexceptforunder speciccircumstances.Despite
this,byMarchthe WHOdeclaredaglobal pandemicand
byOctoberthevirus hadinfectedover40millionpeople
andclaimedoveronemillionlivesworldwide.3
Thepandemichasalsoposedasevereshocktotheglobal
economy.Inthesecondquarterof2020theOrganisationfor
EconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD)recorded
thelargesteverdropingrossdomesticproduct(GDP)for
theOECDarea
4
andpredicteda4.5declineinworldGDP
overthecourse oftheyear.5TheWorld Bank’sbaseline
estimateisfora 5.2declineover2020.6 But a falling
globalGDPwill bringaboutvaryingdegrees ofhardship
fromplacetoplace. Inmanycountriesit willexacerbate
economic challenges and structural fragilities. And if
predictionsarecorrect,anunprecedenteddeclineinglobal
remittanceowswillremoveavitalsourceofincomefor
manyhouseholdstorespondtoandrebuildfromthecrisis.7
InthisspecialsectionoftheAtlasofMigrationweexplore
theimplicationsoftheCOVID-19pandemicforinternational
migrationand mobility.Studies so faragree thatthe
pandemicis likely tohave signicantimplications for
globalmigrationpatterns, butlittleisknown abouttheir
extent,timescaleorbroadereconomic,socialandpolitical
impact.TheJointResearchCentrehasshownhowmobility
restrictionshavekept seasonaltemporaryworkersfrom
workingintheEU’sagriculturesector,withlittlepotential
forthemtobereplaced bynativeworkers,forexample.8
AlanGamlenof MonashUniversityandtheUniversity of
Oxfordhaswrittenthat ‘theworldhasalready sunkinto
themigrationequivalentofaneconomicrecession.Itisall
butinevitablethatthenumbersofpeoplecrossingborders,
especiallyona permanentandlong-termbasis, willfall
furtherbeforetheybounceback’.9
Butoverallmigration guresonlytell partofthestory.
Whilstmigrationmaybecomemoredicultforsomedue
togovernmentsclosingbordersandafallinemployment
opportunitiesinplacesofeconomicdownturn,othermigrants
havebeenabletobenetfromexemptionstotravelbans,
suchasthosewhoareregularcross-borderworkers,seasonal
workersorhealthprofessionals.10Infact,thepandemicis
likelytoimpact notonlythesize ofmigrationowsbut
alsoontheir compositionandkeycharacteristics asthe
routespeopletakeanddecisionsonwhentomovechange.
Thepandemicmayalsoposeaparticularrisktomigrants
aroundtheworld. AccordingtotheOECD, migrantsmay
beat higherrisk ofinfection,in particularincountries
wherethey areconcentrated inlabour marketsectors
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