Macroeconomic elements on the developments of the Albanian economy during 2020 and onwards

• Pages: 120-130

Vo

l. 7 N

o

. 1

M

arc

h,

202

1

A

cademic Journal o

f

Business,

A

dministration, Law and Social Science

s

II

PCCL Publishin

g

, Graz-

A

ustri

a

I

SSN 2410-391

8

A

cces online at www.ii

p

ccl.or

g

12

0

M

acroeconomic elements on the developments of the Albanian econom

y

d

uring 2020 an

d

onwar

d

s

Anisa Ang

j

e

li

U

niversity o

f

Tirana,

A

lbania

Ab

str

a

c

t

The

A

lbanian economy has experienced two consecutive strong negative shocks, initially

from the earthquake of November 2019, and further from the Covid-19 pandemic. Their

combined impact is expected to generate a deep contraction o

f

the economy in the years 2020-

2021 and more. The recession of the economy is estimated to be driven by declining private

consumption, investment and exports.

O

n the other hand, the reduction of imports as well

as stimulating macroeconomic policies is estimated to so en somewhat the contraction of

t

he economy. With the overcome of the health emergency, economic activity is expected to

r

ecover and accelerate growth rates in the coming years. But uncertainty about the

f

orm and

speed of the economy's recovery remains high, and the impact of the shock on the long-term

performance of the economy remains dif‌f‌i cult to assess.

K

e

y

words: Macroeconomic elements,

A

lbanian economy, 2020

.

I

ntr

odu

ct

io

n

Measures taken b

y

the government and the Bank o

f

A

lbania have hel

p

ed alleviate

t

he immediate e

f‌f

ects o

f

the crisis and on maintaining

f‌i

nancial stabilit

y

, which is an

im

p

ortant

p

recondition

f

or hel

p

ing the econom

y

recover. The

f‌i

nancial s

y

stem a

pp

ears

stable and the banking sector continues to be characterized b

y

ca

p

ital ade

q

uac

y

,

r

emains li

q

uid and

p

ro

f‌i

table. The non-

p

er

f

orming loan ratio has continued its

downward trend, aided b

y

the

p

olic

y

o

f

p

ost

p

onement o

f

amortization

p

a

y

ments,

undertaken to reduce the im

p

act o

f

the

p

andemic

.

O

verall income

f

or the

p

eriod o

f

2020, were realized in terms o

f

95,3% o

f

the total

annua

l

pl

an. 

1

Re

f‌l

ecting the stimulus

f‌i

scal

p

ackages in res

p

onse to the closure o

f

e

conomic activities during the

p

eriod March-Ma

y

2020, but also the im

p

act o

f

the

e

conomic downturn on budget revenues, the de

f‌i

cit and

p

ublic debt were increased

in 2020. The current account de

f‌i

cit has also ex

p

anded to re

f‌l

ect the e

f‌f

ects o

f

the

CO

V

I

D-19

p

andemic on ex

p

orts, mainl

y

ex

p

orts o

f

travel services and on o

p

erating

i

nc

o

m

e

a

nd

i

n

f‌l

o

ws r

e

m

i



a

nc

e

s.

A

s

f

or, the general

p

ublic ex

p

enditure

f

or the

p

eriod o

f

2020, were realized in terms

of

97.6% o

f

the annual

p

lan.

Th

e

c

u

rr

e

nt

a

cc

ou

nt d

ef‌i

c

i

t 

2

r

ecorded

EU

R 611.9 million in the

f‌i

rst hal

f

o

f

2020

,

b

eing exten

d

e

d

by

8.0% in annua

l

terms

d

uring t

h

is

p

erio

d

.

I

t is estimate

d

at 9.9%

of GDP, from the level of 8.4% recorded in the f‌i rst half of 2019. The widening of the

of

GDP,

from

the

level

of

1

Published b

y

Ministr

y

of Finance and

E

conom

y

, “the summer

y

of 12 months

p

erformance of

p

u

bl

ic revenues an

d

ex

p

en

d

itures”. Fe

b

ruar

y

2021.Tirane.

Alb

ania

.

2

Published b

y

Ministr

y

of Finance and

E

conom

y

, The annual re

p

ort on budget execution 2020,

Published in Februar

y

2020

.