Qualitative Methods of Demand Forecasting for SMEs in Germany

• Pages: 7-21
• Date: 01 January 2021
• Published date: 01 January 2021
• Author: Volker Doberanzke
• Subject Matter: Derecho Público y Administrativo

European Journal of Economics, Law and Social Sciences

IIPCCL Publishing, Graz-Austria

Vol. 5 No. 1

January, 2021

ISSN 2519-1284

Acces online at www.iipccl.org

7

Qualitative Methods of Demand Forecasting for SMEs in Germany

Volker Doberanzke

Abstract

The well-known qualitative methods for carrying out demand forecasts can also be applied

well to medium-sized companies. In particular, it has been shown that expert surveys and sales

estimates are very easy-to-use methods for generating demand forecasts or ensuring quality.

Customer surveys also deliver good results but are somewhat more complex to carry out. The

implementation of the Delphi method has proven to be quite complex and is therefore not

considered a preferred method for the medium-sized company. In contrast, scenario analysis

is of paramount importance. This method should also be used by medium-sized companies as

a standard method that is fairly easy to use and can be used in a variety of ways.

Keywords: demand forecast; expert survey; sales estimate; Delphi method; Scenario method.

1. Forecasting Methods and Medium-Sized Companies

1.1. Demand Forecasting

Which products and services will be in demand in two years and ensure the company’s

sales success? What are the short-term trends in demand? What will the demand look

like in the next quarter? Which product variants could be of interest to my customers

in six months? These and other questions are of paramount importance for the

product creation process in operational practice. Almost all operational processes and

functions, such aspurchasing, logistics, warehousing and all production processes

and programs, depend on answering these questions. In addition, these questions

are of fundamental strategic importance for the medium-sized company. If,e.g.,

too much capital is tied up in inventories, this could have a negative impact on a

company’s operating cash ow. Alternatively, if there are insucient resources for

the provision of services (e.g., in the care sector), this could have a sensitive impact

on the quality of the services. The most accurate estimate of future sales or customer

orders can be considered as the starting point for all planning activities for medium-

sized businesses. Such forecasts also have an impact on long-term planning and thus

on the strategy of a medium-sized company.Due to demographic developments in

Germany, it is already foreseeable today that the number of required nursing places

in retirement homes will increase by over 30% in the next 15 years (Wuest 2018),but

this will also increase the need for nursing sta disproportionately. Based on these

forecasts, there are signicant business opportunities for medium-sized companies

that are working or want to work in the nursing industry. Conversely, it also means

that, from an entrepreneurial perspective, strategies must be developed to train

sucient nursing sta, to recruit them and to retain them in the long term.

Demand forecasts are of paramount importance for the entire operational service

creation process and inuence the company’s protability in the short, medium and

long term. This article deals with the qualitative techniques for estimating the demand

for goods and services in German medium-sized companies. The planning process