The Propensity to Emigrate from the Perspective of the Household - a Comparison over Time between two Kosovo Data Sets

AuthorMrika Kotorri - Jean Mangan
PositionEconomics Department, University of Pristina, Kosovo, Economics Unit, Rochester Institute of Technology, Kosovo - Staffordshire University, United Kingdom
Pages271-278
Vo
l. 4 N
o
. 1
M
arch, 201
8
ISS
N 2410-391
8
A
cces on
l
ine at www.ii
p
cc
l
.or
g
271
A
cademic Journal o
f
Business,
A
dministration, Law and Social Sciences
II
PCCL Publishin
g
, Graz-
A
ustria
The Propensit
y
to Emigrate from the Perspective of the Household – a Com
-
parison over Time
b
etween two Kosovo Data Set
s
. Pr
f. Mr
k
K
t
rr
E
conomics Department,
U
niversity o
f
Pristina, Kosov
o
E
conomics
U
nit, Rochester
I
nstitute o
f
Technology, Kosov
o
Prof. Jean Manga
n
S
ta
ordshire
U
niversity,
U
nited Kingdo
m
Ab
str
a
ct
The aim in this paper is to analyse the stability over time o
f
a household planning to send
a
t l
ea
st
o
n
e
a
dd
i
t
io
n
a
l m
e
mb
e
r
a
br
oa
d d
ue
t
o
d
i
ss
a
t
i
sf
a
ct
io
n w
i
th th
e
n
a
t
io
n
a
l
e
c
o
n
o
m
i
c
s
ituation by replicating the model in Kotorri (2010). The analysis is motivated by the political
change, that is, the Declaration of
I
ndependence of Kosovo in the time period between the two
s
urveys. The empirical results indicate support for the hypothesis of the overall stability over
time, and that the only di erences in model structure include the coe cient estimate on the
a
itudinal variable Worse and on the location-related variable Type of
A
rea.
JEL
:
F
2
2
K
e
y
words
:
Migration, time stability, marge
, Blinder-
O
axaca, Kosovo
.
I
ntr
odu
ct
io
n
T
he aim o
f
this research is to anal
y
se the stabilit
y
over time o
f
migration behaviour
a
s mo
d
e
ll
e
d
in Kotorri (2010). For t
h
is
p
ur
p
ose, t
h
is
p
a
p
er re
pl
icates t
h
e ana
ly
sis in
K
otorri (2010) b
y
estimating the model o
f
the
p
ro
p
ensit
y
to emigrate using a 2008 data
s
et. Both o
f
these data sets, the 2007 and the 2008, were based on the same sam
p
ling
f
ramework (see Kotorri, 2010
f
or details).
A
n im
p
ortant
p
olitical change occurred
during this
p
eriod, but the time di
erence between the two sam
p
les is ver
y
short,
onl
y
1
y
ear. The inde
p
endence o
f
Kosovo was declared in Februar
y
2008 just be
f
ore
t
he second surve
y
was conducted. Thus the 2007 sam
p
le is
f
rom the
p
eriod be
f
ore
t
he Declaration o
f
the
I
nde
p
endence, while the 200 8 sam
p
le is
f
rom the
p
eriod a
er.
T
here
f
ore, some di
erences between the two
y
ears ma
y
be antici
p
ated in households’
a
itudes towards the
f
uture economic situation resulting
f
rom the resolving o
f
the
p
olitical status o
f
Kosovo. However, as will be ex
p
lained in the
f
ollowing
p
aragra
p
hs,
a
variable that ca
p
tures the e
ect o
f
households’ ex
p
ectations was included in the
m
odel o
f
the
p
ro
p
ensit
y
to emigrate develo
p
ed in the
p
a
p
er.
T
he model in Kotorri (2010) de
p
lo
y
s an ex
p
ected utilit
y
maximisation
f
ramework to
m
o
d
e
l
h
ouse
h
o
ld
d
ecision-ma
k
ing
b
e
h
aviour regar
d
ing migration using t
h
e same
b
road assum
p
tions. There, the households are modelled as maximising utilit
y
f
rom
current and
f
uture consum
p
tion, including in their choices the
p
ossibilit
y
o
f
a) sending
a
t least one additional member abroad, or b) not sending an
y
or an
y
f
urther members
ab
r
oad
. T
hi
s
i
s c
o
n
di
t
io
n
al
o
n t
he
hou
s
ehold
i
nc
o
m
e
c
o
nstr
ai
nt. T
he
hou
s
ehold
s
a
s
t
he decision-making unit are assumed onl
y
to choose to send members abroad i
f
the

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