ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE EU IN JUNE.

The improvement in the industrial confidence indicator suggests that the upward trend in industry observed over recent months seems to be consolidating. Managers in industry held an optimistic opinion concerning their production expectations and level of stocks. In the Euro zone, assessments regarding order books were also positive, while results for the EU as a whole remained unchanged due to restrained figures for the United Kingdom.The survey of industrial investment conducted in March/April points to a 4% increase in real terms on 1998. This indicates a more optimistic mood among European managers in manufacturing industry who revised their expectations upwards by 1% compared to Autumn 1998. Nevertheless, the anticipated year-on-year growth of investment is below the 7% increase in real terms in the Community in 1998.Forecasts for 1999 exceed the rates recorded last year in Ireland (60% compared with 6% in 1998), Greece (27% compared with 14%), Austria (17% compared with 6%) and the United Kingdom (6% compared with 4%). In Germany (6%) and France (4%), expectations remain favourable, although less so than in 1998 (11% and 6% respectively). By contrast, prospects in Italy are pessimistic, with an anticipated 5% decline in 1999, compared with 7% growth in 1998.Retailers.The retail trade confidence indicator fell significantly in June in both the EU as a whole and the Euro zone. Assessments were particularly negative in Germany, France, Italy and Belgium. In these countries, a...