EU/UN/CLIMATE : DESPITE SOME PROGRESS, NEGOTIATIONS ARE STALLING.

The second round of negotiations on a future international agreement on climate change, which ended on 12 June in Bonn, resulted in some progress being made. However, this remains far below expectations for an agreement to be achieved during the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen (7 to 18 December). 'One has to admit that we did not have very positive results in Bonn,' said Director-General of DG Environment Carl Falkenberg to the press on 15 June. He regretted the fact that no countries have yet committed to the extent of the European Union, namely on emission reduction targets for greenhouse gases in tune with the recommendations of scientific experts (from -25 to -40% by 2020). However, like the Executive Secretary of the Climate Change Convention, Yvo de Boer, who said that he is 'confident of obtaining a text at the end of the year', Carl Falkenberg refuses to envisage delaying the inevitable: 'We must continue to work, particularly with the large economies.' He nevertheless added: 'It is clear that we need to obtain genuine political willingness.'

Meeting since 1 June, delegates from 183 countries - of the 192 parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) - noted their numerous differences. While the number of proposals put on the table is increasing and while major countries such as the United States and Japan have, finally, clarified their position, this is not sufficient. 'We arrived with around fifty pages and we are leaving with 200 or 250. This is a Herculean assignment,' underlined the European Commission's representative in Bonn, Arthur Runge-Metzger, at the close of the conference.

The targets announced by Japan on 10 June - a reduction of 15% in 2020 compared with 2005, i.e. - 8% compared with 1990 - like those of the United States (at this stage equivalent to -4% in 2020 compared with 1990) appear too weak. For the time being, they represent a total reduction in emissions from the north' in the region of 8 to 14%, when science recommends a reduction of 25 to 40% in 2020, in order to prevent the world's thermometer from exceeding the threshold of +2[degrees]C. In Bonn, thirty-seven developing countries, which are party to the Kyoto Protocol, called for commitment from industrialised countries on a reduction of 'at least 40%', taking responsibility for China's demands.

Discussions are also continuing with regard to the year of reference (1990, as anticipated by the Kyoto...