General description of the security situation

• Pages: 17-35

EASO Country of Origin Information Report - Nigeria Security Situation  17

2. General description of the security situation

There are several indicators for the security situation in Nigeria. In the Global Terrorism Index

(GTI) 2017, Nigeria is ranked the 3rd country in the world according to number of deaths from

terrorist attacks, although the country saw a reduction in deaths with 3 100 less killed by ter-

rorism in 2016 than in 2015. This was mainly due to an 80 % reduction in the number of people

killed by the radical Islamist group, Boko Haram. The decrease in number of fatalities can be

attributed to the sustained operations by the Nigerian military, supported by interventions

by the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) (19) in the Lake Chad region, as well as the split

within Boko Haram itself. In the Global Peace Index 2017, Nigeria did not make any progress;

like the previous year, it still ranked 149th out of 163 countries (20).

Another important indicator is the Fragile States Index 2017. Although Nigeria remained in the

13th place in comparison with the previous year, the country was among the top 20 (13th) most

improved countries in 2017 (21). Also, a report produced by Nigeria Watch confirms that fatal

violence has declined in the north-east since 2015 (22).

In spite of the noted improvements, the situation is still regarded as alarming; in particular the

escalating violence between pastoralists and farmers. International Crisis Group (in short: Cri-

sis Group) assesses: ‘Since September 2017, at least 1,500 people have been killed, over 1,300

of them from January to June 2018, roughly six times the number of civilians killed by Boko

Haram over the same period’ (23).

Another big concern is the inadequate capacity of security forces. In July 2017, the Speaker of

House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara, stated that Nigeria is effectively permanently in a

state of emergency, as its armed forces are deployed in more than 28 states of the federation.

According to him, the armed forces have virtually taken over the routine police work in peace

time (24). In November 2017, the World Internal Security and Police Index International (WISPI)

rated the Nigeria police force as the ‘worst’, in terms of its ability to handle internal security

challenges, out of 127 countries assessed (25). Crisis Group assesses that the government’s

deployment of more police and soldiers to states affected by conflicts other than Boko Haram

insurgency, like the escalating farmer-herder violence, will further stretch resources that could

otherwise have been concentrated on countering the aforementioned insurgency (26).

(19) IEP, Global Terrorism Index 2017, 15 November 2017, url , pp. 3, 4, 17.

(20) IEP Global Peace Index, 1 June 2017, url, p. 11.

(21) FFP, Fragile State Index, 10 May 2017, url, pp. 10, 35.

(22) Nigeria Watch, 10 Myths about violence in Nigeria, 2018, url, p. 4.

(23) International Crisis Group, Stopping Nigeria’s Spiraling Farmer-Herder Violence, 26 July 2018, url, p. 1.

(24) This Day, Nigeria in State of Emergency, Says Dogara, 4 July 2017, url.

(25) IPSA, World Internal Security and Police Index 2016; url.

(26) International Crisis Group, Stopping Nigeria’s Spiraling Farmer-Herder Violence, 26 July 2018, url, p. 18.

18  EASO Country of Origin Information Report - Nigeria Security Situation

2.1 Overview of current conflicts in Nigeria

The security situation in Nigeria is affected by the following long-standing major conflicts:

1. The Boko Haram conflict in the North East zone; (27)

2. The conflict between pastoralist and farmers in the North Central zone or so-called

Middle Belt;

3. The oil-related conflict in the Niger Delta; and

4. The escalating violence in Zamfara State related to cattle rustling and banditry.

These conflicts, which have significant impact on the population in the area, will be discussed

in detail in respectively Sections 3.1, 3.2., 3.3 and 3.4.

Besides these major conflicts, there are other manifestations of violence that create insecurity

in the country:

1. The tension between the military and the Islamic Movement in Nigeria (IMN) in Kaduna

State;

2. The tension between the government and Igbo groups for an independent Biafra.

These tensions will be briefly discussed at the end of this report in Section 3.5.

2.2 Armed confrontations in the territory of Nigeria

Although the Nigerian government announced several times since December 2015 that Boko

Haram had been ‘technically defeated’ and no longer hold any territory, (28) reports show that

some areas are still under control by different factions of the group. Residents in some parts

of Borno and Yobe, cited by Deutsche Welle (DW), claim that the Boko Haram faction led by

Abu Mus’ab al Barnawi, ISIS-WA, (for a description of the different factions of Boko Haram see

Section 2.3.7), still holds a territory ‘spanning an estimated 100 miles (160 kilometres)’ (29). A

map produced by the US development agency in February 2018 shows that ISIS-WA territory

extends more than 100 miles into Nigeria’s north-eastern states of Borno and Yobe (30). The

BBC reported that it is unclear which of the two factions is dominant within Boko Haram, but

both operate across the Lake Chad Basin region. Whereas the faction led by Abubakar Shekau,

JAS, seems to be most active in the north-east towards Cameroon, ISIS-WA’s area of operation

seems to be closer to the border with Niger (31).

The map below, published in a report by Institute for Security Studies (ISS), highlighting the

locations of attacks by violent extremist groups in Lake Chad Basin from August 2016 to

April 2018, shows that ISIS-WA is more active near the border with Niger, further south to

areas north and west of Damboa and in Yobe State around Buni Yadi. JAS is more active near

the border with Cameroon and is present in south and central Borno State, particularly around

the Sambisa Forest (32).

(27) Nigeria is officially divided into six geopolitical zones, created during the regime of General Sani Abacha in 1996. For an overview of these six zones see EASO,

EASO COI Report – Nigeria Country Focus, 5 June 2017,url, p. 15.

(28) CBS News, Boko Haram is crushed, Nigeria’s president declares, 24 December 216, url; Daily Trust, Boko Haram Kills 1,100 since being ‘technically defeated’,

3 December 2017, url; DW, Boko Haram Islamists still control parts of northeastern Nigeria, 19 may 2018 ; url; Vanguard, Boko Haram no longer holds our

territory, Nigeria tells UN, 8 May 2018, url.

(29) DW, Boko Haram Islamists still control parts of northeastern Nigeria, 19 May 2018, url.

(30) Reuters, Islamic State ally stakes out territory around Lake Chad, 29 April 2018, url.

(31) BBC, Islamic State and the kidnap of Nigerian schoolgirls from Dapchi, 29 March 2018, url.

(32) Mahmood, O.S. & Ani, N.C., Factional Dynamics within Boko Haram, 6 July 2018, url, pp. 22-23.