INTER-GOVERNMENTAL CONFERENCE: CONSTITUTION TALKS RESUME AMIDST GLOOMY BACKGROUND.

"I see no freedom of movement on any side with a view to finding a compromise before the June 13 elections", said the Belgian Minister Louis Michel, who believes it is "better not to have an agreement at all than a bad one". France's Michel Barnier acknowledged that the mood "is not one of euphoria". "A few weeks ago I would have put the chances of success at 80%, now, after listening to all sides, I think they are no better than 50-50", his Finnish counterpart Erkki Tuomioja added. Meanwhile, Polish Minister Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz, who otherwise kept a very low profile during the morning session, commented: "I would not bet a single Zloty on there being any success to announce in June". A Polish shadow has been thrown across the whole proceedings, as Marek Belka, the expected successor to the outgoing Polish Premier, Leszek Miller, has struggled to secure a parliamentary majority and early legislative elections seem more and more likely, at the risk of depriving Warsaw of a legitimate representative to sign the Constitution at the next Summit. Irish Minister and General Affairs Council President Brian Cowen urged his colleagues to keep cool heads and dismissed talk of blockages when a global draft compromise has still to be tabled. The Minister is keen to restrict discussion on May 24 to general policy, focusing on institutional questions (Council voting system, size and composition of the Commission, number of members in the European Parliament). Though limited in its ambitions, this initiative is nevertheless challenged by France, Mr Barnier insisting "this should have been the final Ministerial session since we've exhausted the process of reiterating red lines and reservations. The Presidency now holds all the cards and needs to determine the centre of gravity for a compromise at the European Council".

Britain's firm stand irritates France and Germany.

The session was marked by a tense stand-off between the United kingdom and several of its partners, Foreign Secretary Jack Straw pointedly recalling his government's "red lines" on the draft Constitutional Treaty. "Jack Straw, who has a lively sense of humour, complained of anti-British mosquito bites so I told him there are also tse-tse flies trying to put everyone to sleep but I do not want a sleeping Europe", said Michel Barnier, his German counterpart Joschka Fischer describing himself as "a pro-European un mosquito". Among the draft articles in document CIG 75/04 (see issue 2869) examined by the IGC on May 17-18, Mr Straw only offered concessions on the horizontal "social clause" (Article III-2b) and institutionalisation of the social dialogue (Article I-47), demanded by France. Regarding judicial co-operation in criminal cases (Articles III-171 and III-172), he continues to reject qualified majority voting in the Council (QMV) even if Ministers finding themselves in a minority benefit from an appeal clause to the European Council - a demand also voiced by Portugal -, but would be prepared to tolerate a formula obliging Heads of State and Government to settle the issue as quickly as possible. France and Belgium were particularly insistent on this point, securing...