Megatrends and sustainability

• Author: Julien Ravet and Ruzica Rakic
• Pages: 33-65

CHAPTER 1

MEGATRENDS AND

SUSTAINABILITY

KEY FIGURES

100 %

increase in

greenhouse gas

emissions since

1980

45 %

of global wealth

owned by the

richest 1 %

2x

more Europeans

aged 80+ by

2100

84 %

of Horizon 2020

investments relate to

at least one SDG

0

countries in the world

meet basic needs for

its citizens at a globally

sustainable level of

resource use

34

What can we learn?

 R&I activities, and R&I policy, take

place in a context where global and

long-term forces are inf‌luencing our

needs, including climate change, an ageing

population, and growing inequalities.

 Climate change is the most serious among

these trends.

 R&I is key for addressing SDGs, going

beyond GDP.

 More than 80 % of investments under

Horizon 2020 can be directly related to

addressing specif‌ic SDGs.

What does it mean for policy?

SDGs require transformative change.

EU R&I policy can set a direction to

generate knowledge and solutions for this

transformation.

Transformative R&I policy can also be

a key enabler of the European process for

SDG policy coordination.

Transformative innovation and sys-

temic transitions involve several new

policy challenges, such as horizontal policy

coordination, the dif‌fusion of radical innov-

ations and providing directionality.

35

CHAPTER 1

1. Megatrends, the long-term driving forces

shaping our future

1 See the EC Megatrends Hub or OECD (2016).

R&I activities, and R&I policy, take place

in a context whereby global and long-term

forces are inf‌luencing our needs. These

forces, or megatrends1, are shaping our world

and will drastically inf‌luence our future (Figure

1-1). While the COVID-19 pandemic has been

disrupting our society in recent months, the

EU has been facing global forces in the longer

term that are inf‌luencing our needs, including

climate change, loss of biodiversity, an ageing

population, and growing inequalities. It is crucial

that we understand what these forces mean

for R&I: how they af‌fect R&I, but also how R&I

can contribute to addressing the challenges

they entail, by providing solutions for them, by

enabling a better understanding of them, and

by making our society more resilient in the long

term (Ricci et al., 2017).

The COVID-19 crisis is unprecedented

and the world is struggling to contain

the pandemic. It has disrupted our lives,

economy and society and stopped almost all

economies worldwide from fully functioning.

While R&I is at the core of the response

to the pandemic itself in the areas of

virology, vaccine development, treatments and

diagnostics, it will be also crucial in the

economic recovery from the crisis, not only

to spur economic activity, but also to accelerate

the transitions that our planet and society need

- a new economy for health and well-being in

a broad sense (physical, mental, skills, social,

environmental and economic aspects).

Figure 1-1 Megatrends in the EC Megatrends Hub

Science, research and innovation performance of the EU 2020

Source: European Commission

Stat. link: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/f‌iles/srip/2020/parti/chapter1/f‌igure-1-1.xlsx

MEGATRENDS

Diversifying

inequalities

Climate change

and environmental

degradation

Diversif‌ication of

education and learning

Diversifying Increasing

signif‌icance of migration

Changing nature

of work

Growing

consumerism

Aggraving resource

scarcity Continuing urbanisation

Increasing demographic

imbalances

Changing security

paradigm

Shiing health

challenges

Expanding inf‌luence

of east and south

Increasing inf‌luence of

new governing systems

Accelerating

technological change and

hyperconnectivity