Addressing the Underreporting of Methane Emissions from Natural Gas Production and Thawing Permafrost

• Published date: 01 July 2014
• Author: Chris Wold,Benjamin Saver,Victoria Johnston
• Date: 01 July 2014
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/reel.12062

Addressing the Underreporting of Methane

Emissions from Natural Gas Production and

Thawing Permafrost

Chris Wold, Victoria Johnston and Benjamin Saver

Reductions of methane, black carbon and tropospheric

ozone could halve warming during the 2030s, while a

fairly aggressive strategy to reduce carbon dioxide

would do little over the next 20–30 years. Concerning

methane, governments must act quickly to take advan-

tage of this opportunity. Production of ‘unconven-

tional’ natural gas, such as shale gas, has increased

significantly and with conventional sources could

meet current consumption levels for over 240 years.

However, the benefit of methane as a transitional fuel

from coal to renewables is questionable due to

methane leakage during production. Also, rising tem-

peratures are releasing methane from melting perma-

frost, but governments are not required to report these

emissions. Thus, countries are farther from meeting

their targets and the global community is farther from

reaching the goal of limiting warming to 2°C above

pre-industrial levels than emissions data suggest. This

article establishes an agenda for fuller accounting of

methane in the climate change regime.

INTRODUCTION: THE

UNDERREPORTING OF METHANE

To date, the climate change regime has focused its

attention on reducing emissions of carbon dioxide

(CO2). While CO2is at the heart of any long-term strat-

egy to abate climate change, the mitigation of short-

lived climate forcers such as black carbon, methane and

tropospheric ozone could bring substantial short-term

climate benefits. A joint report by the United Nations

Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World

Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicates that a

small number of measures relating to black carbon,

methane and tropospheric ozone could pack a signifi-

cant mitigation punch.1Specifically, the report suggests

that projected warming during the 2030s could be

halved through implementation of these measures to

reduce these short-lived climate forcers.2By contrast,

even a fairly aggressive strategy to reduce CO2‘does

little to mitigate warming over the next 20–30 years’.3

Significant co-benefits to air quality, human health and

world food supplies would also result from reducing

black carbon and tropospheric ozone.4The UNEP has

estimated the value of avoiding premature deaths relat-

ing to exposure to tropospheric ozone and PM2.5 (essen-

tially black carbon), and premature deaths resulting

from measures to reduce methane and black carbon, at

a staggering US$1.7–10.9 trillion.5

Concerning methane, governments must act quickly

to take advantage of these opportunities for several

reasons. First, ‘unconventional’ natural gas such as coal

bed methane, gas hydrates and shale gas has recently

gained increased interest due to the new production

techniques and the discovery of vast reserves of natural

gas sources throughout the world. The International

Energy Agency estimates that unconventional sources

of natural gas are as plentiful as conventional sources,

which combined could meet current consumption

levels for more than 240 years.6Perhaps not coinciden-

tally, many have touted the benefits of natural gas both

for its abundance and as a clean energy source, high-

lighting its potential as a transitional fuel that will

reduce carbon emissions by moving away from coal

power to cleaner burning fuels and eventually renew-

able energy.7However, recent studies show that

increased production and use of natural gas may have

greater implications in regards to climate change

than previously thought because its global warming

1United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and World Meteo-

rological Organization (WMO), Integrated Assessment of Black

Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone: Summary for Decision Makers

(UNEP, 2011), at 2.

2Ibid., at 9–10.

3Ibid., at 10.

4Ibid., at 16–18 (including reduction of premature deaths, improved

human health and better crop yields). See also United States Envi-

ronmental Protection Agency (US EPA), Report to Congress on Black

Carbon (US EPA, 2012), at 148.

5See US EPA, n. 4 above, at 148 (citing UNEP and WMO, n. 1

above, at 122).

6International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook 2011: Are

We Entering a Golden Age of Gas? (IEA, 2011), at 12.

7Ibid., at 93 (‘Some argue that, in a severely carbon-constrained

world, renewables will be fully competitive on a level playing f‌ield and

there will be little place for fossil fuels in electricity generation. Their

vision is of [natural] gas as a transitional fuel to a world of low-carbon

power generation.’).

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Review of European Community & International Environmental Law

RECIEL 23 (2) 2014. ISSN 2050-0386 DOI: 10.1111/reel.12062

© 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 9600 Garsington Road, Oxford OX4 2DQ, UK and 350 Main Street, Malden, MA 02148, USA.

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