Concluding remarks

• Author: Singleton, Nicola; Kalamara, Eleni; Noor, André
• Pages: 44-44

TECHNICALREPORTIEstimatingthesizeofthemainillicitretaildrugmarketsinEurope:anupdate

44

8Concludingremarks

Thisreportdescribestheseconditerationofthemarketsizeestimationexercise,attemptingtoestablisha

regularandrepeatedestimationofmarketsizefortheEuropeanUnionofcannabis,heroin,cocaine,

amphetaminesandMDMA,usingavailablemonitoreddataasfaraspossible.

Followingthefirstmarketsizeestimatespublishedin2016,someofthedatagapsinitiallyidentifiedhavebeen

reducedinthissecondroundofestimates.ThiswaspossibleduetotheestablishmentoftheEWSD,initiatedin

ordertofillindatagaps,especiallyinareasinwhichitisdifficultforourroutinemonitoringsystemsto

address,suchastheamountsofdrugsused.Furtherreductionstodatagapsweremadepossibleby

encouragingorclarifyingthereportingofthestandardEMCDDAindicators,leadingtodatacollectedthrough

theroutinemonitoringbeingavailableformorecountriesandbeingmorerecentthaninthefirstround,for

exampleintheareasofhighriskpopulationandgeneralpopulationsurveys.

Despitethemanylimitationshighlightedthroughoutthereport,thissecondroundexercisewasimproved

comparedtothepreviousone.Thechangesinthemethodologydonotallowtimetrendstobeassessedat

thispoint.Furtherimprovementinthemethodologyisanongoingprojectaimingtoreduceuncertaintyand

increaseourunderstandingofthedrugmarket.Untilthen,alllimitationsandassumptionsneedtobeclearly

statedtoallowforthecorrectinterpretationoftheestimates.Lookingtothefuture,itwillalsobeimportant

toconsiderhowweobtaintheinformationnecessarytomonitordrugmarketsthatareincreasingly,diverse

characterisedbyawiderrangeofproductsandmodesofuse.