Executive summary

• Author: Singleton, Nicola; Kalamara, Eleni; Noor, André
• Pages: 5-6

TECHNICALREPORTIEstimatingthesizeofthemainillicitretaildrugmarketsinEurope:anupdate

5



Executivesummary

Thefirstmarketsizeestimatesforcannabis,cocaine,MDMA,amphetaminesandheroinwerepublishedinthe

EMCDDAEuropol2016EuropeanDrugMarketsReport,covering2013.Thechallengesinobtainingsuch

estimateswererecognisedatthattime,thoughtheneedtoassistpolicymakersinprioritisinginterventionsby

providinginformationonthescale,relativeimportanceandchangesinthemarketsfordifferentdrugs

outweighedtheseconcerns.Theprojectwasseenasaprocess,wheretheestimateswouldbeimprovedin

subsequentroundsbyaddressingdataissuesanddevelopingthemethodology.Since2016additionaland

differentdatasourceshavebecomeavailableandwhereappropriatethemethodologyhasbeenchanged,

thoughthebasicunderlyingmethodremainsasitwas.

Developmentsfortheestimatespublishedinthisreportinclude:

 dataontheamountsofdrugsusedbyvarioustypesofuserhavebeenextendedandupdated,using

informationfromtheEuropeanWebSurveyonDrugs(EWSD);

 routinelymonitoreddatafromtheMemberStateshavebeenupdated,improvingestimatesofthe

numberofusersanddrugprices.Forexample,24oftheEUcountrieshavereportedamorerecent

generalpopulationsurveythanthatavailablewhentheinitialestimatesweremade;

 crackusebyhighriskopioidusershasbeenincludedinthecocainemarketsizeestimates;

 dataonpatternsofuseforcannabisherbandresin,separatelyobtainedfromtheEWSD,havebeen

usedtoestimatethecontributionofthesedifferentformsofcannabistotheoverallcannabismarket.

Inthepreviousestimates,numbersofseizureswereusedintheabsenceofsuitableinformation

aboutuseoftheseproducts.

Thehiddennatureofthetopic,thelimitationsinherentinsomeoftheavailabledataandtheneedfor

simplifyingassumptionscontributetouncertaintyaroundtheestimates.Alternativemethodsofestimation

wereconsideredandarementionedinthereport,thougheachhasitsowndataissuesandweaknesses.The

demandsideapproachremainsthefavouredmethod,thoughitisrecognisedthattheestimatesarethe

outcomeoftheapproachadopted,andalternativeapproacheswillgeneratedifferentvalues.

Somekeyprinciplesunderpinningtheapproachtakenare:

 whereverpossible,thedatausedcamefromroutinedatacollectionsheldbytheEMCDDAtofacilitate

theplannedprocessofimprovingandupdatingovertime;

 Europeanestimateswereobtainedbysummingindividualcountryestimates;

 whereimputationofmissingdatawasnecessary,asfaraspossible,thiswasbasedonotherrelated

data;

 everyefforthasbeenmadetonoteallimputationsandassumptionsmadewithintheestimation

process,sothatthelimitationsareclear.

Aswiththeinitialestimates,the2017figuresarelikelytounderestimatethemarket;giventheavailabledata

fromwhichtheywereconstructed,anddespitetheirsubstantialsize,theseestimatesshouldbeconsideredas

minimumvalues.Countryestimateshavenotbeenproduced,givenissuesofcomparabilityinthedata,the

focusremainingonobtainingEUestimatesofthequantityandvalueofthemarketforcannabis,cocaine,

MDMA,amphetaminesandopioids.Aconsequenceofthisprocessisthatthe2013and2017estimatesarenot

directlycomparableandshouldnotbeinterpretedasatrend.

Thebasicmodelusedintheestimationprocesscanbeexpressedinsimpleform:

Totalannualconsumption(quantity)=Numberoflastyearusers*Amountusedperyear

Marketvalue(peryear)=Totalannualconsumption*Price