Overall size of the EU drug market

• Author: Singleton, Nicola; Kalamara, Eleni; Noor, André
• Pages: 34-36

TECHNICALREPORTIEstimatingthesizeofthemainillicitretaildrugmarketsinEurope:anupdate

34

6OverallsizeoftheEUdrugmarket

6.1Overallsizeofthemarket

TheoverallsizeoftheEUdrugmarket,andthemarketintheEuropeanUnion,NorwayandTurkey,was

obtainedbysummingtheindividualestimatesforcannabis,stimulantsandheroin(Table9).Theseestimates

indicatethatadultslivingintheEuropeanUnionspentatleastEUR30billiononillicitdrugsinthepastyear,

withcannabismakingupthelargestshareofthis(39%),followedbycocaine(31%)andheroin(25%).As

highlightedthroughoutthisreport,thesenewestimatesincorporatenotonlymorerecentdataonprevalence

andpricesbutalsonewdataonamountsofdrugsusedfromamuchwiderrangeofcountriesthanpreviously

availableandhencearenotcomparablewiththepreviousestimates.

Asdiscussedindetailelsewhereinthereport,becauseofgapsinthedata,undercoverageofdatasources,

andunderreporting,theestimatesarelikelytobeunderestimatesandshouldbeinterpretedasminimum

values.Anotherimportantpointtonoteisthattheestimatesproducedherefocusonlyonthemainillicitdrugs

consumedinEurope,cannabis,cocaine,heroin,amphetaminesandMDMAanddonotincludeotherillicit

drugs,forexamplehallucinogensandnewpsychoactivesubstances,becausethedataonconsumptionof

thesedrugsisnotconsistentlycollectedandingeneraltheprevalenceofuseisquitelow.

Muchofthedatausedtoproducethemarketsizeestimatescomefromsurveysandhencewillbesubjectto

samplingandothersourcesoferror.Wehaveattemptedtotakeaccountofsomeofthiserrorbymakinguse

ofinformationontheconfidenceintervalsaroundsomeoftheestimatestoproducethe‘low’and‘high’

estimatesshowninthetable.However,giventhemanysourcesofuncertaintywithintheunderlyingdatathis

isaverylimitedapproachandanimportantareafordevelopmentinthefuturewillbetoconsidermore

appropriatewaysofestimatingthevarianceintheestimates.

Table9:EstimatesofthesizeoftheEuropeanillicitdrugmarket,2017

6.2Howdotheseestimatescomparewithotherestimatesofmarketsize?

Anestimateofthesizeandvalueoftheretailmarketforillicitdrugsisanimportantelementofthedata

neededtobuildapictureofthedrugmarketanditssignificance.Therefore,despitethechallengesin

EuropeanUnionEuropeanUnion,NorwayandTurkey

QuantityQuantity

MidLowHighMidLowHigh

Cannabis(tonnes)1550.971405.731710.331597.30 1450.25 1758.47

Cocaine(tonnes)118.5699.65137.46120.40 101.32139.47

Amphetamines(tonnes)61.9950.9981.1863.5552.7183.29

MDMA(milliontablets) 59.7349.7069.7663.0952.8573.33

Heroin(tonnes)148.86126.81181.17153.09130.83185.60

Value(EURmillion)Value(EURmillion)

MidLowHighMidLowHigh

Cannabis11635.0410533.9912823.3412070.5610949.1113279.25

Cocaine9068.967635.3010502.609237.407788.9110685.87

Amphetamines1007.69830.881283.501054.41869.731346.11

MDMA528.63437.33619.94582.48487.83677.14

Heroin7440.866394.049119.557694.406635.189385.49

Total 29681.1925831.5434348.9330639.2526730.7635373.86